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Ouch. From one perspective, the nation's long-running bid to organize the Cop31 next year has ended in clear failure.

The effort ran for more than three years for the rights to host the world's biggest environmental conference and sustainable business expo, which would have brought many thousands of people to the city of Adelaide next fall.

That's not happening. Rather, the summit known as Cop31 is headed to the tourist destination of the Turkish coastal city, on the Turkish Mediterranean.

Letdown and Conflicting Signals

This outcome will be a significant disappointment to numerous individuals who had hoped organizing the environmental gathering could help speed up Australia's transition from being a fossil fuel economy to a renewable energy superpower, and bring global attention to the survival crisis facing Pacific island nations, who would have been joint hosts.

The procedure that resulted in defeat has been an opaque mess. Recently, there have been questions that the prime minister and other senior figures truly desired the proposal to succeed. The prime minister's language were ambiguous at best. This led to stories in the local and global press saying the government was withdrawing.

This contrasted with the communication being relayed at the Cop30 talks in the Brazilian city, where the Australian climate change minister, the climate minister, had just stated the country was "in it to win it".

Uncertain support is not a new issue for the hosting proposal. While the minister supported it, other senior members of the administration have only sometimes appeared to care.

The Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade, usually in charge for global environmental talks, has been disengaged and sometimes outright opposed.

There is little sign Albanese has considered international climate meetings a priority. He hasn't attended one since taking office in 2022. We'll never know, but many may question if more could have been done to get the bid over the line.

An Alternative View

That's the negative take. However, another perspective to consider it.

In the context the climate discussions this week in Brazil – and from an global viewpoint – the announcement on Wednesday night may, perversely, have been the most favorable outcome available.

Bowen set out on Wednesday an unprecedented deal that he was working on with his colleague from Turkey, Murat Kurum. Turkey would be the conference leader, organizer and primary coordinator, and the Australian delegation – Bowen himself – would assume a role as "chief negotiator", wrangling nearly 200 countries on the stuff that the nations actually attend for – the talks on how to together combat the environmental emergency.

Additionally, there would be a greater focus on the Pacific, including a preliminary meeting on an island nation.

Reasons for Doubt

There are plenty of grounds for scepticism. Turkey and Australia do not have a close relationship. Specific aspects of the deal had not been completed at the time of writing. The whole thing could fall over before it begins.

However, it might represent a way to recover value from what looked like an approaching car crash for the international cooperation on climate change.

The Turkish government is widely seen in the international community as having been determined on causing havoc in the international climate negotiations. This framework is supposed to work by unanimous agreement. Typically, that means if there are several nations in the race those with less support either withdraw gracefully, or a compromise is privately arranged to encourage them to step aside.

The Turkish bid clearly had weaker endorsement than the joint Pacific proposal to host Cop31. At least 24 of the 28 countries responsible for nominating next year's host had supported the Australian bid.

However, uniquely, Turkey declined to withdraw. The word "disruption" has been thrown around in the past week, and not only by local commentators.

International Dynamics

Turkey's obstinacy can be interpreted as a reflection of the divided international landscape. Without US participation under Donald Trump, there has been no major power with the heft to stare down the petroleum exporters that provided the Turkish government with some cover.

President Erdoğan is considered aligned with the Russian leader. Several nations feared a summit hindered from the leadership if his administration managed the negotiations. Germany did not want to have to organize an underprepared climate conference at the UN environmental office in Bonn, which is what would have happened under UN rules if the stalemate wasn't resolved.

An Innovative Approach

A resolution was needed. The UN system is flawed and often unsettling to observe, but global cooperation has empirically had an impact in the fight against climate change. The Turkey-Australia arrangement is a innovative solution that maintains progress when it is most crucial.

Notwithstanding reasonable concerns of the federal administration over its hypocritical support for expanding fossil fuel exports, climate activists who attend international meetings see Bowen as a force for good in the talks. He has been asked to co-chair negotiation streams at multiple summits he has participated in.

This is significant. Although some have dismissed the role of a "president of negotiations", experts from academic institutions and veteran observers at environmental negotiations assert it is crucial to their success.

"Every successful Cop has been shaped by a president directing proceedings who can listen, build consensus and deliver an significant result. We saw that in the German capital in 1995, in Cancún in 2010 and Paris in 2015. We saw the opposite in the Danish city in 2009," he says. "This position is critical at the conference other than making sure that delegates are fed."

Unanswered Questions

Multiple unresolved issues. For example, civil society plays a vital role at climate conferences. How, if at all, can the federal administration do to prevent a restriction on NGO participation by the Turkish leadership?

Possibly little. However, this doesn't prevent this deal appearing as the most promising opportunity available to have a summit that may provide benefits for the Pacific, Australia and the world. This attempt is justified.