Starmer's Backers Launch 'Block Andy Burnham' Drive to Prevent Mayor's Parliamentary Return

Close associates of Prime Minister Keir Starmer have reportedly kicked off a concerted initiative to stop Andy Burnham, the Labour Greater Manchester Mayor, from making a comeback to parliament. This action comes after the stepping down of a Manchester MP, which has prompted an upcoming by-election.

Major Hurdles in the Candidate Selection Procedure

Several members on the Labour Party's ruling NEC have apparently suggested it would be extremely difficult for Mr. Burnham to navigate the selection procedure. This is largely due to the sizable presence of supporters of the Prime Minister on the body who are desperate to avert any potential leadership challenge.

The Labour hierarchy is said to have sprung into action following the announcement of the MP's intended resignation, with party figures and MPs voicing warnings about the substantial financial cost and electoral danger of a subsequent election for mayor in Greater Manchester.

Burnham's Ambitions and Internal Disquiet

Andy Burnham has been open about his political ambitions. Last year, he caused consternation in Downing Street and among senior ministers when he stated that numerous MPs had urged him to stand for the party leadership.

There has long been speculation that he is seeking a seat in the Commons to possibly stand for the party leadership should a contest to Sir Keir emerge. However, allies of the Greater Manchester Mayor have cautioned against overstating the extent of any planning, stating he is deeply committed to his job as mayor and would solely re-enter national politics if he felt he had a meaningful contribution to make.

"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," one ally said.

Political Landscape and Poll Ratings

Against a backdrop of opinion polls indicating Sir Keir is unpopular and many MPs despondent about Labour's prospects at the forthcoming election, Andy Burnham is seen as the only senior Labour figure with consistently positive public approval ratings.

If Mr. Burnham choose to stand, multiple obstacles stand in his way. He would need to be selected by the NEC—where the odds are stacked against him—and then secure victory in the byelection against challenges from Reform and independent candidates, all before any potential bid for the leadership.

Efforts to Block Burnham

High-ranking Labour sources have said that a "Stop Andy" operation is already in progress, with the party machinery being tightly controlled by senior aides of the Prime Minister.

The Prime Minister himself said that the byelection process was in its "early stages" and told his MPs to cease discussion of possible contests for the leadership.

Andy Burnham, speaking before the MP's departure was finalised, said to journalists: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."

Costs and Risks

Figures on the committee have reportedly cited not only personal animosity towards Mr. Burnham but also the significant expense of a by-election for mayor in Greater Manchester. This could divert around £500,000 in party funding from other crucial elections across the country.

"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," one source said.

Several sources also shared fears about Reform UK potentially win the mayoralty created by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a major symbolic victory for them.

Union Influence and Procedural Fears

Being an elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's approval to run. It is also possible the body could enforce an women-only shortlist to prevent his candidacy.

However, one Burnham ally counselled against assuming the NEC would simply reject him, even though Sir Keir's team is widely thought to dominate it.

The unions occupy a sizable proportion of seats on the NEC. While the largest unions are currently keeping their counsel, sources suggested they would be opposed to anything perceived as meddling from Downing Street.

The leader of the Fire Brigades Union stated: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."

Electoral Challenges

The seat in question has a considerable Labour majority. However, Reform UK is expected to launch a significant challenge, building on support in one part of the constituency. Labour believes it is on firmer ground in the more populous Greater Manchester section, though it could encounter a challenge from independent candidates.

If Mr. Burnham re-enter the Commons, he would need the backing of 80 Labour MPs to mount a bid for the leadership, a hurdle that is far from certain given he is regarded with caution by a number of on the backbenches.

The resigning MP stated he was resigning due to deteriorating health, which had made it untenable for him to carry on in his role. He also remains subject to a standards inquiry related to his membership in an inappropriate online group.